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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."